Ayo Strategic Consulting Group

Bid/No-Bid Decision Calculator

Bid/No-Bid Decision Calculator

Strategic opportunity evaluation tool for government contractors

This calculator evaluates opportunities across 4 critical areas with data-driven analysis to help you make informed bidding decisions.

Win Probability & Competitive Assessment

Evaluate your chances of winning based on experience, relationships, and competitive landscape.

🎯Win Probability Factors

This section carries the highest weight (35%) because your chances of winning directly impact ROI. We evaluate your competitive position, relationships, and relevant experience to assess realistic win probability.

How well do you understand the client's requirements and pain points?

Deep understanding from pre-RFP engagement
Good understanding from public information
Limited understanding, learning from RFP
Poor understanding, shooting blind

What is your relationship with the contracting officer/program manager?

Strong existing relationship
Some interaction/familiarity
No prior relationship
Negative history or reputation issues

How many credible competitors do you expect?

1-2 competitors
3-5 competitors
6-10 competitors
More than 10 competitors

Do you have relevant past performance for this type of work?

Directly relevant past performance
Similar past performance
Somewhat related past performance
Little or no relevant past performance

Financial & Resource Assessment

Analyze the financial opportunity and resource requirements for this bid.

💰Financial Factors

This section weighs 30% of your decision because financial impact determines if the opportunity is worth pursuing. We analyze contract value, proposal costs, and cash flow implications.

What is the contract value relative to your annual revenue?

10-25% of annual revenue (significant but manageable)
5-10% of annual revenue
Less than 5% of annual revenue
More than 25% of annual revenue (high risk)

What is your estimated cost to prepare this proposal?

Less than 1% of contract value
1-2% of contract value
2-3% of contract value
More than 3% of contract value

Do you have the financial capacity and bonding for this contract?

Yes, easily within our capacity
Yes, but it would be a stretch
Uncertain, would need to secure financing/bonding
No, exceeds our financial capacity

What are the payment terms and cash flow implications?

Favorable terms with progress payments
Standard government payment terms
Extended payment cycles
Very long payment cycles or upfront investment required

Strategic Fit & Capability Assessment

Evaluate how well this opportunity aligns with your strategic goals and capabilities.

🎪Strategic Alignment

This section accounts for 20% of the decision because strategic fit determines long-term value. We assess business alignment, capability requirements, and growth potential.

How well does this opportunity align with your strategic business goals?

Perfect alignment with growth strategy
Good alignment with business direction
Neutral - neither strategic advantage nor disadvantage
Poor alignment, would distract from strategy

Do you have the technical capabilities and expertise required?

Yes, core competency area
Yes, with some additional training/hiring
Would need significant teaming or subcontracting
Outside our capability areas

What is the potential for follow-on work or contract extensions?

High potential for multi-year extensions
Some potential for follow-on work
Limited follow-on opportunities
One-time contract with no extensions

How would winning this contract impact your market position?

Significantly strengthen market position
Moderately improve market position
Neutral impact on market position
Could weaken market focus

Risk & Timing Assessment

Identify potential risks and evaluate timing considerations for this opportunity.

⚠️Risk Factors

This section represents 15% of the analysis, focusing on execution risks that could impact success. We evaluate technical complexity, timeline constraints, and resource availability.

What is your assessment of the technical and performance risk?

Low risk, well-defined requirements
Moderate risk, some unknowns
High risk, complex or uncertain requirements
Very high risk, bleeding-edge technology

How much time do you have to prepare a quality proposal?

Adequate time for thorough proposal
Sufficient time with focused effort
Tight timeline, requires intense effort
Extremely tight deadline, quality may suffer

What is the stability/funding status of this requirement?

Fully funded, stable requirement
Funded but subject to budget changes
Partial funding or uncertain budget
Unfunded or highly uncertain

Do you have the available team capacity to execute this work?

Yes, team is available and ready
Available with some scheduling adjustments
Would need to hire or redistribute resources
Insufficient capacity, would overstretch team

📊 Detailed Analysis & Recommendations

🎯 Next Steps Based on Your Analysis

Your bid decision analysis is complete. Use this data-driven assessment to make strategic decisions about opportunity pursuit.

Disclaimer: This calculator is designed for educational and informational purposes only. The results are meant to provide you with factors to consider when evaluating opportunities, not to dictate your business decisions. Every opportunity is unique and should be evaluated based on your specific circumstances, capabilities, and business objectives. Use this analysis as one tool among many in your decision-making process.